Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 82671.169651 87243.831881 91812.454038 96716.273253 101827.546977 106994.675065 112609.734649
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 75270.705157 82286.646601 89490.067177 97428.458019 105920.799732 114722.919252 124525.214025
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 69565.259076 78220.532807 87301.179468 97517.087833 108668.311761 120449.300476 133814.604644
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 65981.487637 75949.294126 86595.699781 98777.631261 112294.344868 126795.860178 143493.089851
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 62029.501052 72920.276300 84740.219387 98469.819319 113925.083103 130731.022633 150332.161657
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 59833.131563 71648.985760 84653.414450 99956.996556 117399.279493 136585.425673 159208.750289
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 57590.732395 70159.429446 84172.926486 100863.248038 120103.655011 141490.720298 166960.430804
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 55098.442284 68235.325447 83064.336648 100927.992178 121742.727540 145108.057746 173191.917015
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 52725.374732 66327.872471 81863.795202 100781.333987 123047.113719 148271.927446 178852.754447
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 51650.847055 65889.476476 82322.355864 102523.033680 126510.417635 153904.926825 187366.088095
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 50653.167761 65481.813235 82765.950139 104204.723577 129875.258768 159413.715453 195747.165984
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 49241.541049 64505.320239 82472.423775 104956.989421 132101.355475 163567.235012 202537.132495
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 47435.930091 63006.686561 81524.086773 104911.842322 133386.893970 166647.295972 208129.815715
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 45986.676813 61899.069779 81009.410286 105358.858831 135244.052809 170403.279181 214544.744672
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 44418.985421 60584.236441 80188.076433 105383.640232 136552.570711 173480.940178 220143.441713
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 43582.486454 60159.350399 80439.911925 106709.209657 139437.365168 178457.470424 228046.985663
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 42012.545301 58740.022748 79397.795899 106378.293486 140245.446985 180892.069900 232861.598153
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 41416.901866 58554.695517 79891.831547 107959.409041 143418.744444 186218.518988 241223.913284
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 40578.150673 58019.628221 79914.127219 108923.058292 145809.583936 190585.874606 248428.693101
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 39388.423143 56982.657480 79257.987814 108991.872473 147052.891278 193525.260536 253876.480361
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 38160.887970 55856.780631 78451.826792 108835.897353 147986.144520 196064.140359 258824.925973
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 37841.849629 55936.277303 79204.921933 110687.962065 151476.900160 201806.605753 267788.921050
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 37514.140173 55988.676878 79911.987347 112475.853084 154890.468117 207468.876241 276686.019068